Working outcomeBetter probability language for ordinary table decisions.
Count what can be counted
Visible copies and known needed tiles can support rough comparisons. The exact order and location of unseen tiles remain unknown.
Compare paths, not perfect percentages
A useful question is whether one path needs more scarce or constrained tiles than another.
- Separate known visible tiles from unseen tiles.
- Treat joker dependence as a constraint, not automatic rescue.
- Update after each discard and exposure.
Do not confuse likely with deserved
Probability describes uncertainty over repeated situations. It does not promise a result in this round or judge the quality of the player.
Keep the boundary visible
Basic instruction belongs to NewToMahjong; history belongs to SagesMahjong; hosting belongs to MahjongHostess. Current-card instruction may teach process but may not reproduce protected hands.